IBR and Planning Plausibility Check

Complex planning –
we make it easy.

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All planning involves making assumptions about the future and thus in itself requires decisions to be made in uncertainty.

Especially when it comes to future investment and credit decisions, you cannot be critical enough in your approach to the plausibility of your own goals and premises. This includes running through various different (planning) scenarios, and including “feedback or adjustment loops” in your processes. Which is why “forward planning” and “backward planning” are integral parts of any successful planning process. Sounds complicated, but it is in fact just complex (very complex).

And complexity is best approached with rationality and entrepreneurial intuition. Or simply with experience.

If we view planning as a preliminary stage of decision(s), then we should start with these questions:

Simple, but elementary:

1. How urgent are the requirements (goals) I wish to meet with a particular planning decision and the pursuant activities?

2. How likely is it that I will actually achieve those goals?

3. How great is the need for security on my part or on the part of my stakeholders?

Systematic forward and backward planning is extremely helpful when it comes to answering these three questions. If forward planning follows the usual everyday pattern of action of taking the first step before the second, then our goal can be reached after around the fifth step.

Concentrated backward planning requires a very clearly defined – or envisioned – goal. If you have this in mind, you can – thinking backwards – answer the question as to which actions were (would have been) likely to achieve the desired outcome or sub-outcomes.

What your financers are looking for:

What we can offer you:

Results that count.
Decisions that matter.

Why are all these considerations important for robust planning plausibility/Independent Business Reviews?

Because in a sense, they form the theoretical superstructure of actions for the more technically standardised approach, which is primarily a very transparent “numbers, data, facts”-based calculation or exercise in risk quantification.

You can read here (Download flyer) how we perform this task on your behalf and to your long-term benefit. Ultimately, we provide you and your company with a robust basis for negotiations and for securing your financing – one that is comprehensible, valid, and convincingly documented.

Contact

Dietmar Buchfink Managing Partner Technical Diploma in Business Studies

Jessica Hirsch Partner Diploma in Business Administration

Tobias Seybold Partner Diploma in Industrial Engineering

Heinrich Judt Partner Diploma in Business Studies

Forecasting plausibility checking Convincing your financing partners in six steps
“Projecting Away from Reality” Download article: Psychological Forecasting Errors
Forecasting errors Article by Georgiy Michailov, FINANCE magazine
Turnaround Forum presentation Prof. Dr. Matthias Sutter Video of the interview
Risk Management Interview with Prof. Dr Gerd Gigerenzer

Complex planning – we make it easy.