All planning involves making assumptions about the future and thus in itself requires decisions to be made in uncertainty.
Especially when it comes to future investment and credit decisions, you cannot be critical enough in your approach to the plausibility of your own goals and premises. This includes running through various different (planning) scenarios, and including “feedback or adjustment loops” in your processes. Which is why “forward planning” and “backward planning” are integral parts of any successful planning process. Sounds complicated, but it is in fact just complex (very complex).
And complexity is best approached with rationality and entrepreneurial intuition. Or simply with experience.
If we view planning as a preliminary stage of decision(s), then we should start with these questions:
Why are all these considerations important for robust planning plausibility/Independent Business Reviews?
Because in a sense, they form the theoretical superstructure of actions for the more technically standardised approach, which is primarily a very transparent “numbers, data, facts”-based calculation or exercise in risk quantification.
You can read here (Download flyer) how we perform this task on your behalf and to your long-term benefit. Ultimately, we provide you and your company with a robust basis for negotiations and for securing your financing – one that is comprehensible, valid, and convincingly documented.
Forecasting plausibility checkingConvincing your financing partners in six steps
“Projecting Away from Reality”Download article: Psychological Forecasting Errors
Forecasting errorsArticle by Georgiy Michailov, FINANCE magazine
Turnaround Forum presentation
Prof. Dr. Matthias Sutter
Risk ManagementInterview with Prof. Dr Gerd Gigerenzer